CFTC Warns Prediction Markets Over Manipulation Risks In ‘Mention’ Contracts

The CFTC Division of Market Oversight issued staff guidance regarding prediction contracts that settle based on whether a person says, mentions, or performs a specific action. The regulator warns that these mention markets carry heightened manipulation risks, particularly when settlement depends on conduct that is not independently verifiable or generated. This advisory serves as staff guidance rather than a new federal statute, as the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission addresses risks within these specific prediction market product categories.